Army’s third-down conversion rate with Carson Smith and since Carson Smith’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Army was 4.8 percentage points over with Carson Smith and 4.7 percentage points under since Carson Smith’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 50.1% and 30.0%, a difference of 20.1%. All 4 home games were with Carson Smith. Both night games were with Carson Smith. Both nonconference games were with Carson Smith.
Carson Smith, running back: 169 rushing yards, 40 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season.
One game since Carson Smith’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Carson Smith
+4.8%
since Carson Smith’s last game
−4.7%
0%10%
plain
50.1%
30.0%
30%40%50%60%
The games
with Carson Smithsince Carson Smith’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsBBryant | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | 36.4% | 40.6% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 50.0% | 47.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 50.0% | 37.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 53.3% | 45.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 58.3% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Tulsa | W | 35.7% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 30.0% | 34.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Bryant has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.