Army’s points of margin with Carson Smith and since Carson Smith’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Army was 4.1 points over with Carson Smith and 22.1 points under since Carson Smith’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 13.1 and -27.0, a difference of 40.1. All 4 home games were with Carson Smith. Both night games were with Carson Smith. Both nonconference games were with Carson Smith.
Carson Smith, running back: 169 rushing yards, 40 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season.
One game since Carson Smith’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Carson Smith
+4.1
since Carson Smith’s last game
−22.1
-20020
plain
13.1
-27.0
050
The games
with Carson Smithsince Carson Smith’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsBBryant | W | 56 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | -4 | 6.9 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 4 | 6.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | -2 | -8.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 3 | 7.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 32 | 2.9 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Tulsa | W | 3 | -4.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | -27 | -4.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Bryant has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.