Army’s points allowed with Carson Smith and since Carson Smith’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Army was 1.7 points under with Carson Smith and 15.9 points over since Carson Smith’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 22.1 and 49.0, a difference of 26.9. All 4 home games were with Carson Smith. Both night games were with Carson Smith. Both nonconference games were with Carson Smith.
Carson Smith, running back: 169 rushing yards, 40 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season.
One game since Carson Smith’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Carson Smith
−1.7
since Carson Smith’s last game
+15.9
-10010
plain
22.1
49.0
2040
The games
with Carson Smithsince Carson Smith’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsBBryant | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | 28 | 20.4 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 17 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 31 | 29.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 17 | 23.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 24 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Tulsa | W | 35 | 28.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 49 | 33.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Bryant has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.