Arkansas’ third-down conversion rate with Chris Marshall and since Chris Marshall’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arkansas was 1.8 percentage points under with Chris Marshall and 8.2 percentage points over since Chris Marshall’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 40.2% and 47.1%, a difference of 6.8%. All 3 away games were with Chris Marshall. All 4 day games were with Chris Marshall. All 4 unranked opponents were with Chris Marshall.
Chris Marshall, receiver: 601 receiving yards, 43 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 7 of those 25 games.
One game since Chris Marshall’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Chris Marshall
−1.8%
since Chris Marshall’s last game
+8.2%
-20%-10%0%
plain
40.2%
47.1%
20%40%
The games
with Chris Marshallsince Chris Marshall’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Ole Miss | L | 41.7% | 36.4% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Texas | L | 41.7% | 34.3% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 9.1% | 43.7% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Missouri | L | 27.3% | 34.1% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Texas Tech (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 34.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAlabama A&M | W | 64.3% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Arkansas State (neutral) | W | 83.3% | 46.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 75.0% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 30.0% | 48.4% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 46.7% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 53.8% | 45.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | 40.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Auburn | L | 37.5% | 42.4% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | L | 43.8% | 47.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 18.2% | 45.0% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Texas | L | 42.9% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsMissouri | L | 38.5% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorth Alabama | W | 58.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 41.2% | 36.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia | L | 36.4% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Tulsa | W | 47.1% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Texas A&M | L | 30.0% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTennessee | L | 18.2% | 39.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 50.0% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMissouri | L | 47.1% | 38.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Alabama has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Chris Marshall nor since Chris Marshall’s last game: Chris Marshall had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.