Arkansas’ points of margin with Chris Marshall and since Chris Marshall’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arkansas was 0.2 points under with Chris Marshall and 16.0 points under since Chris Marshall’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -5.7 and -24.0, a difference of 18.3. All 3 away games were with Chris Marshall. All 4 day games were with Chris Marshall. All 4 unranked opponents were with Chris Marshall.
Chris Marshall, receiver: 601 receiving yards, 43 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 7 of those 25 games.
One game since Chris Marshall’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Chris Marshall
−0.2
since Chris Marshall’s last game
−16.0
020
plain
-5.7
-24.0
-20020
The games
with Chris Marshallsince Chris Marshall’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Ole Miss | L | -32 | -8.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Texas | L | -10 | -14.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 21 | 22.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Missouri | L | -7 | -5.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Texas Tech (neutral) | W | 13 | -2.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAlabama A&M | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Arkansas State (neutral) | W | 42 | 12.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | -6 | -17.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | -1 | 1.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | -43 | -13.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | -3 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | -3 | -10.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Auburn | L | -9 | 0.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | L | -3 | 7.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ LSU | L | -1 | -6.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Texas | L | -15 | -11.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsMissouri | L | -14 | -1.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorth Alabama | W | 17 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Utah | L | -33 | -15.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia | L | -28 | -15.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Tulsa | W | 28 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Texas A&M | L | -27 | -10.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTennessee | L | -7 | -13.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 10 | -2.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMissouri | L | -24 | -8.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Alabama has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Chris Marshall nor since Chris Marshall’s last game: Chris Marshall had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.