Arkansas’ carries with Cam Settles and without Cam Settles
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arkansas was 0.3 carries under with Cam Settles and 2.3 carries under without Cam Settles over its last 25 games, 13 games against 5. The plain averages are 33.5 and 33.5, a difference of 0.0. Expected was 0.6 carries higher with Cam Settles than without Cam Settles. All 3 games after a bye were with Cam Settles.
Cam Settles, running back: 230 rushing yards, 61 carries and 18 receptions in 11 of those 25 games, 17% of Arkansas’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Cam Settles
−0.3
without Cam Settles
−2.3
-10010
A +1.9 difference in carries over expected with Cam Settles vs without Cam Settles is about what you’d expect.
plain
33.5
33.5
203040
A 0.0 difference in carries with Cam Settles vs without Cam Settles is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Cam Settleswithout Cam Settles
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Ole Miss | L | 37 | 38.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Texas | L | 34 | 35.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 38 | 38.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Missouri | L | 35 | 32.4 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Texas Tech (neutral) | W | 44 | 35.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAlabama A&M | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Arkansas State (neutral) | W | 28 | 37.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 37 | 33.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 32 | 32.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 29 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 44 | 35.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | 32 | 30.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Auburn | L | 23 | 34.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | L | 46 | 33.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 35 | 31.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Texas | L | 31 | 33.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsMissouri | L | 25 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorth Alabama | W | 48 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 28 | 27.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia | L | 20 | 35.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Tulsa | W | 42 | 39.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Texas A&M | L | 22 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTennessee | L | 34 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 41 | 33.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMissouri | L | 35 | 30.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Alabama A&M, North Alabama have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 10 of these 20 games; in the other 10 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Cam Settles nor without Cam Settles: Cam Settles had no game for the team that season, and sit out.