Alabama’s third-down conversion rate with Kevin Riley and without Kevin Riley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Alabama was 6.6 percentage points over with Kevin Riley and 7.5 percentage points under without Kevin Riley over its last 25 games, 15 games against 9. The plain averages are 48.4% and 32.5%, a difference of 15.9%. Both games after a bye were with Kevin Riley.
Kevin Riley, running back: 279 rushing yards, 74 carries and 21 receptions in 15 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +14.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Kevin Riley vs without Kevin Riley is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kevin Riley and it comes up 8 times in 100.
A +15.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Kevin Riley vs without Kevin Riley is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kevin Riley and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Auburn | W | 66.7% | 41.4% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Michigan (neutral) | L | 30.8% | 44.8% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 35.3% | 42.5% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 75.0% | 44.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 25.0% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Georgia | W | 68.4% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 46.7% | 44.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Missouri | W | 40.0% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Tennessee | W | 45.5% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ South Carolina | W | 50.0% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs LSU | W | 30.8% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 38.5% | 35.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsEEastern Illinois | W | 72.7% | — | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Auburn | W | 23.5% | 37.9% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 21.4% | 39.4% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | @Oklahoma | W | 16.7% | 36.2% | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 34.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs East Carolina | W | 53.3% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kentucky | W | 45.5% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFlorida State | W | 33.3% | 46.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina | W | 50.0% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 66.7% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsGeorgia | L | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Tennessee | L | 15.4% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 41.7% | 37.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 23 of these 25 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.