Alabama’s third-down conversion rate with Kevin Riley and without Kevin Riley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Alabama was 10.6 percentage points over with Kevin Riley and 10.1 percentage points under without Kevin Riley in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 51.4% and 31.6%, a difference of 19.8%.
Kevin Riley, running back: 55 rushing yards, 15 carries and 2 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Kevin Riley is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +20.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Kevin Riley vs without Kevin Riley is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kevin Riley and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A +19.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Kevin Riley vs without Kevin Riley is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kevin Riley and it comes up 14 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs East Carolina | W | 53.3% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kentucky | W | 45.5% | 43.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 33.3% | 46.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Carolina | W | 50.0% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 66.7% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Georgia | L | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 15.4% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 41.7% | 37.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.