Alabama’s third-down conversion rate with EJ Crowell and since EJ Crowell’s last game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Alabama was 2.6 percentage points over with EJ Crowell and 4.2 percentage points over since EJ Crowell’s last game over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 44.3% and 41.7%, a difference of 2.7%. Expected was 4.3 percentage points higher with EJ Crowell than since EJ Crowell’s last game. All 3 away games were with EJ Crowell. Both night games were with EJ Crowell. All 3 ranked opponents were with EJ Crowell.
EJ Crowell, running back: 216 rushing yards, 32 carries and 3 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game since EJ Crowell’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with EJ Crowell
+2.6%
since EJ Crowell’s last game
+4.2%
-20%0%20%
plain
44.3%
41.7%
20%40%60%
The games
with EJ Crowellsince EJ Crowell’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Auburn | W | 66.7% | 41.4% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Michigan (neutral) | L | 30.8% | 44.8% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 35.3% | 42.5% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 75.0% | 44.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 25.0% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Georgia | W | 68.4% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 46.7% | 44.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Missouri | W | 40.0% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Tennessee | W | 45.5% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ South Carolina | W | 50.0% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs LSU | W | 30.8% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 38.5% | 35.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsEEastern Illinois | W | 72.7% | — | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Auburn | W | 23.5% | 37.9% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 21.4% | 39.4% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | @Oklahoma | W | 16.7% | 36.2% | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 34.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs East Carolina | W | 53.3% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kentucky | W | 45.5% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFlorida State | W | 33.3% | 46.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina | W | 50.0% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 66.7% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsGeorgia | L | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Tennessee | L | 15.4% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 41.7% | 37.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with EJ Crowell nor since EJ Crowell’s last game: EJ Crowell had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.