Alabama’s third-down conversion rate with EJ Crowell and since EJ Crowell’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Alabama was 2.6 percentage points over with EJ Crowell and 4.2 percentage points over since EJ Crowell’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 44.3% and 41.7%, a difference of 2.7%. Expected was 4.3 percentage points higher with EJ Crowell than since EJ Crowell’s last game. All 3 away games were with EJ Crowell. Both night games were with EJ Crowell. All 3 ranked opponents were with EJ Crowell.
EJ Crowell, running back: 216 rushing yards, 32 carries and 3 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since EJ Crowell’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with EJ Crowell
+2.6%
since EJ Crowell’s last game
+4.2%
-20%0%20%
plain
44.3%
41.7%
20%40%60%
The games
with EJ Crowellsince EJ Crowell’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs East Carolina | W | 53.3% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kentucky | W | 45.5% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 33.3% | 46.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Carolina | W | 50.0% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 66.7% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Georgia | L | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 15.4% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 41.7% | 37.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.