Alabama’s rushing yards with Kevin Riley and without Kevin Riley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Alabama was 2.4 yards over with Kevin Riley and 3.2 yards under without Kevin Riley in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 152.8 and 155.7, a difference of 2.9. Expected was 8.4 yards lower with Kevin Riley than without Kevin Riley.
Kevin Riley, running back: 55 rushing yards, 15 carries and 2 receptions in 5 games this season, 7% of Alabama’s rushing yards in those games.
3 games without Kevin Riley is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +5.5 difference in rushing yards over expected with Kevin Riley vs without Kevin Riley is about what you’d expect.
A −2.9 difference in rushing yards with Kevin Riley vs without Kevin Riley is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs East Carolina | W | 229 | 164.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kentucky | W | 155 | 128.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 252 | 184.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Carolina | W | 126 | 150.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 183 | 128.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Georgia | L | 161 | 134.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 54 | 158.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 71 | 180.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.