Putting Up Numbers· college football

Alabama’s rushing yards with EJ Crowell and since EJ Crowell’s last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Alabama was 15.9 yards over with EJ Crowell and 109.1 yards under since EJ Crowell’s last game over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 165.7 and 71.0, a difference of 94.7. All 3 away games were with EJ Crowell. Both night games were with EJ Crowell. All 3 ranked opponents were with EJ Crowell.

EJ Crowell, running back: 216 rushing yards, 32 carries and 3 receptions in 7 of those 25 games, 19% of Alabama’s rushing yards in those games.

One game since EJ Crowell’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

rushing yards a game over expected

The games

with EJ Crowellsince EJ Crowell’s last game
Alabama’s games, last 25 games, each marked with EJ Crowell or since EJ Crowell’s last game
SideDateGameResultrushing yardsExpected
Nov 30, 2024vsAuburnW203151.5
Dec 31, 2024vsMichigan (neutral)L68150.1
Aug 30, 2025@Florida StateL87146.3
Sep 6, 2025vsLouisiana MonroeW212167.0
Sep 13, 2025vsWisconsinW72116.5
Sep 27, 2025@GeorgiaW11969.3
Oct 4, 2025vsVanderbiltW146104.3
Oct 11, 2025@MissouriW12685.0
Oct 18, 2025vsTennesseeW120165.0
Oct 25, 2025@South CarolinaW72126.5
Nov 8, 2025vsLSUW59128.9
Nov 15, 2025vsOklahomaL8078.8
Nov 22, 2025vsEEastern IllinoisW269—
Nov 29, 2025@AuburnW15867.6
Dec 6, 2025vsGeorgia (neutral)L-289.7
Dec 19, 2025@OklahomaW3274.5
Jan 1, 2026vsIndiana (neutral)L2482.8
Sep 5, 2026vsEast CarolinaW229164.4
Sep 12, 2026@KentuckyW155128.1
Sep 19, 2026vsFlorida StateW252184.2
Sep 26, 2026vsSouth CarolinaW126150.7
Oct 3, 2026@Mississippi StateW183128.8
Oct 10, 2026vsGeorgiaL161134.3
Oct 17, 2026@TennesseeL54158.0
Oct 24, 2026vsTexas A&MW71180.1

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with EJ Crowell nor since EJ Crowell’s last game: EJ Crowell had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.