Alabama’s points allowed with Kevin Riley and without Kevin Riley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Alabama was 5.2 points under with Kevin Riley and 4.2 points over without Kevin Riley in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 17.6 and 27.3, a difference of 9.7.
Kevin Riley, running back: 55 rushing yards, 15 carries and 2 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Kevin Riley is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −9.4 difference in points allowed over expected with Kevin Riley vs without Kevin Riley is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kevin Riley and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A −9.7 difference in points allowed with Kevin Riley vs without Kevin Riley is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kevin Riley and it comes up 13 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs East Carolina | W | 10 | 10.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kentucky | W | 17 | 28.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 36 | 17.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Carolina | W | 18 | 29.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 23 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Georgia | L | 20 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 26 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 20 | 19.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.