Alabama’s passing yards at home and away
, ,
Through Alabama’s game on Sep 26, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Alabama was 56.0 yards over at home and 44.7 yards under away over its last 25 games, 11 games against 9. The plain averages are 305.0 and 200.2, a difference of 104.8. Both top-10 opponents were away. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Alabama’s +100.8 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Sep 26, 2026.
passing yards a game over expected
A +100.8 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +104.8 difference in passing yards at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Missouri | W | 215 | 227.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ LSU | W | 109 | 237.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Mercer | W | 319 | — | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Oklahoma | L | 164 | 226.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Auburn | W | 256 | 228.8 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Michigan (neutral) | L | 192 | 217.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 254 | 235.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 371 | 278.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 382 | 228.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Georgia | W | 280 | 239.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 340 | 287.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @Missouri | W | 200 | 226.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Tennessee | W | 253 | 274.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ South Carolina | W | 253 | 248.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 288 | 229.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsOklahoma | L | 326 | 235.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsEEastern Illinois | W | 270 | — | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Auburn | W | 122 | 278.3 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 212 | 248.8 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | @Oklahoma | W | 232 | 243.2 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 170 | 243.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs East Carolina | W | 260 | 267.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kentucky | W | 188 | 269.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFlorida State | W | 320 | 260.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina | W | 365 | 240.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.3 in 2024, plus 1.8 in 2025, plus 4.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 68% in 2025, 59% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Mercer, Eastern Illinois have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Sep 26.