Putting Up Numbers· college football

Akron’s total yards with Sean Patrick and without Sean Patrick

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 9.8 yards under with Sean Patrick and 58.1 yards under without Sean Patrick in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 355.6 and 323.0, a difference of 32.6. Expected was 43.7 yards lower with Sean Patrick than without Sean Patrick. All 3 home games were with Sean Patrick. All 4 nonconference games were with Sean Patrick. All 4 first-half games were with Sean Patrick.

Sean Patrick, running back: 259 rushing yards, 47 carries and 12 receptions in 8 games this season.

One game without Sean Patrick is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Sean Patrickwithout Sean Patrick
Akron’s games, 2026, each marked with Sean Patrick or without Sean Patrick
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Sep 3, 2026@Wake ForestL307259.8
Sep 12, 2026vsRRobert MorrisW523—
Sep 19, 2026@MinnesotaL224290.9
Sep 26, 2026vsUNLVL301367.0
Oct 3, 2026@Central MichiganL340356.2
Oct 10, 2026vsEastern MichiganL372414.3
Oct 17, 2026@Miami (OH)L323381.1
Oct 24, 2026@Kent StateL422336.5

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Robert Morris has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.