Akron’s third-down conversion rate with Sean Patrick and without Sean Patrick
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 1.9 percentage points over with Sean Patrick and 7.5 percentage points under without Sean Patrick in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 41.6% and 35.3%, a difference of 6.4%. All 3 home games were with Sean Patrick. All 4 nonconference games were with Sean Patrick. All 4 first-half games were with Sean Patrick.
Sean Patrick, running back: 259 rushing yards, 47 carries and 12 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game without Sean Patrick is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Sean Patrick
+1.9%
without Sean Patrick
−7.5%
0%10%
plain
41.6%
35.3%
30%40%50%
The games
with Sean Patrickwithout Sean Patrick
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 46.2% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 23.1% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 38.5% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | L | 42.9% | 45.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 41.7% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 35.3% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | 53.8% | 37.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Robert Morris has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.