Akron’s third-down conversion rate with Cibastian Broughton and since Cibastian Broughton’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 11.7 percentage points over with Cibastian Broughton and 1.3 percentage points under since Cibastian Broughton’s last game over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 45.8% and 39.2%, a difference of 6.6%. All 4 conference games were since Cibastian Broughton’s last game.
Cibastian Broughton, quarterback: 380 passing yards, 66 pass attempts and 53 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
2 games with Cibastian Broughton is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Cibastian Broughton
+11.7%
since Cibastian Broughton’s last game
−1.3%
0%10%
plain
45.8%
39.2%
30%40%50%
A +6.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Cibastian Broughton vs since Cibastian Broughton’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Cibastian Broughtonsince Cibastian Broughton’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 40.0% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Buffalo | L | 42.9% | 37.2% | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | 33.3% | 31.0% | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | @ Kent State | W | 53.3% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Toledo | W | 46.2% | 37.8% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Wyoming | L | 20.0% | 29.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | 7.1% | 31.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ UAB | L | 37.5% | 32.8% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Duquesne | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Toledo | L | 13.3% | 29.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 60.0% | 34.3% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 42.9% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Ball State | L | 16.7% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Buffalo | W | 14.3% | 32.2% | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 54.5% | 38.0% | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vsKent State | L | 36.8% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 23.1% | 32.0% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 46.2% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 23.1% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 38.5% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Central Michigan | L | 42.9% | 45.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsEastern Michigan | L | 41.7% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Miami (OH) | L | 35.3% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kent State | L | 53.8% | 37.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Robert Morris has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Cibastian Broughton nor since Cibastian Broughton’s last game: Cibastian Broughton had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.