Akron’s third-down conversion rate with Brayden Roggow and without Brayden Roggow
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 1.3 percentage points under with Brayden Roggow and 11.7 percentage points over without Brayden Roggow in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 39.2% and 45.8%, a difference of 6.6%. All 4 conference games were with Brayden Roggow. All 4 second-half games were with Brayden Roggow.
Brayden Roggow, quarterback: 1,343 passing yards, 192 pass attempts and 112 completions in 9 games this season.
2 games without Brayden Roggow is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Brayden Roggow
−1.3%
without Brayden Roggow
+11.7%
0%10%
plain
39.2%
45.8%
30%40%50%
A −6.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Brayden Roggow vs without Brayden Roggow is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Brayden Roggowwithout Brayden Roggow
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 46.2% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 23.1% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 38.5% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | L | 42.9% | 45.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 41.7% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 35.3% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | 53.8% | 37.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Robert Morris has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.