Akron’s points of margin with Cibastian Broughton and since Cibastian Broughton’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 26.8 points over with Cibastian Broughton and 9.7 points under since Cibastian Broughton’s last game over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 6.5 and -20.5, a difference of 27.0. Expected was 38.0 points lower with Cibastian Broughton than since Cibastian Broughton’s last game. All 4 conference games were since Cibastian Broughton’s last game.
Cibastian Broughton, quarterback: 380 passing yards, 66 pass attempts and 53 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
2 games with Cibastian Broughton is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +27.0 difference in points of margin with Cibastian Broughton vs since Cibastian Broughton’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Cibastian Broughton and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 4 | 2.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Buffalo | L | -11 | -0.9 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | -13 | -12.1 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | @ Kent State | W | 21 | 13.0 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Toledo | W | 7 | -7.6 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Wyoming | L | -10 | -6.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | -68 | -22.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ UAB | L | -3 | -9.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Duquesne | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Toledo | L | -42 | -25.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 6 | -8.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -13 | -10.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Ball State | L | -14 | -1.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Buffalo | W | 8 | -11.0 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 34 | 12.0 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vsKent State | L | -7 | 1.7 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 3 | -10.5 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | -22 | -48.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | -34 | -26.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | -28 | -6.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Central Michigan | L | -24 | -10.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsEastern Michigan | L | -2 | -6.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Miami (OH) | L | -20 | -11.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kent State | L | -15 | -3.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Robert Morris has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Cibastian Broughton nor since Cibastian Broughton’s last game: Cibastian Broughton had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.