Akron’s points allowed with Brayden Roggow and without Brayden Roggow
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 5.5 points over with Brayden Roggow and 0.9 points under without Brayden Roggow over its last 25 games, 6 games against 17. The plain averages are 35.7 and 26.3, a difference of 9.4. All 6 night games were without Brayden Roggow. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Brayden Roggow. All 3 games after a bye were without Brayden Roggow.
Brayden Roggow, quarterback: 1,434 passing yards, 208 pass attempts and 123 completions in 11 of those 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
A +6.4 difference in points allowed over expected with Brayden Roggow vs without Brayden Roggow is about what you’d expect.
A +9.4 difference in points allowed with Brayden Roggow vs without Brayden Roggow is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brayden Roggow and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 21 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Buffalo | L | 41 | 27.2 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | 29 | 26.7 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | @ Kent State | W | 17 | 24.1 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Toledo | W | 14 | 31.2 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Wyoming | L | 10 | 24.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | 68 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ UAB | L | 31 | 32.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Duquesne | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Toledo | L | 45 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 22 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 20 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Ball State | L | 42 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Buffalo | W | 16 | 29.9 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 10 | 20.8 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vsKent State | L | 42 | 27.0 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 16 | 29.2 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 38 | 47.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 41 | 35.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 38 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Central Michigan | L | 41 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsEastern Michigan | L | 25 | 30.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Miami (OH) | L | 34 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kent State | L | 35 | 24.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Duquesne, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.