Akron’s penalty yards with Sean Patrick and without Sean Patrick
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 1.7 yards over with Sean Patrick and 7.7 yards under without Sean Patrick over its last 25 games, 16 games against 3. The plain averages are 55.6 and 45.3, a difference of 10.3. All 6 night games were with Sean Patrick. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Sean Patrick. All 8 nonconference games were with Sean Patrick.
Sean Patrick, running back: 533 rushing yards, 116 carries and 23 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
3 games without Sean Patrick is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
penalty yards a game over expected
A +9.4 difference in penalty yards over expected with Sean Patrick vs without Sean Patrick is about what you’d expect.
A +10.3 difference in penalty yards with Sean Patrick vs without Sean Patrick is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Buffalo | L | 30 | 48.0 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | 22 | 52.7 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | @ Kent State | W | 52 | 54.4 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Toledo | W | 63 | 56.6 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Wyoming | L | 34 | 58.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | 5 | 48.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ UAB | L | 44 | 53.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Duquesne | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Toledo | L | 16 | 49.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 69 | 49.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 60 | 43.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Ball State | L | 74 | 50.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Buffalo | W | 48 | 44.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 74 | 44.0 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vsKent State | L | 30 | 48.5 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 40 | 50.8 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 35 | 59.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 68 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 74 | 54.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 25 | 64.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Central Michigan | L | 58 | 58.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 82 | 60.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Miami (OH) | L | 51 | 60.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kent State | L | 165 | 54.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vs Ohio | L | 30 | 57.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Duquesne, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 21 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Sean Patrick nor without Sean Patrick: Sean Patrick had no game for the team that season, and sit out.