Akron’s passing yards with Brayden Roggow and without Brayden Roggow
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 2.9 yards under with Brayden Roggow and 34.6 yards under without Brayden Roggow in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 214.2 and 219.0, a difference of 4.8. Expected was 26.5 yards higher with Brayden Roggow than without Brayden Roggow. All 4 conference games were with Brayden Roggow. All 4 second-half games were with Brayden Roggow.
Brayden Roggow, quarterback: 1,343 passing yards, 192 pass attempts and 112 completions in 9 games this season, 78% of Akron’s passing yards in those games.
2 games without Brayden Roggow is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A −4.8 difference in passing yards with Brayden Roggow vs without Brayden Roggow is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 156 | 190.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 282 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 173 | 157.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 194 | 193.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | L | 180 | 202.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 229 | 255.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 234 | 281.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | 275 | 212.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Robert Morris has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.