Akron’s carries with Sean Patrick and without Sean Patrick
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 0.8 carries under with Sean Patrick and 1.4 carries over without Sean Patrick over its last 25 games, 15 games against 3. The plain averages are 34.5 and 33.3, a difference of 1.2. Expected was 3.1 carries higher with Sean Patrick than without Sean Patrick. All 6 night games were with Sean Patrick. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Sean Patrick. All 8 nonconference games were with Sean Patrick.
Sean Patrick, running back: 499 rushing yards, 111 carries and 22 receptions in 17 of those 25 games, 19% of Akron’s carries in those games.
3 games without Sean Patrick is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −2.2 difference in carries over expected with Sean Patrick vs without Sean Patrick is about what you’d expect.
A +1.2 difference in carries with Sean Patrick vs without Sean Patrick is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 34 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Buffalo | L | 27 | 30.1 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | 23 | 28.9 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | @ Kent State | W | 45 | 35.4 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Toledo | W | 34 | 34.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Wyoming | L | 27 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | 36 | 33.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ UAB | L | 43 | 32.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Duquesne | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Toledo | L | 34 | 33.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 35 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 25 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Ball State | L | 35 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Buffalo | W | 39 | 40.9 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 44 | 39.1 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vsKent State | L | 36 | 38.3 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 35 | 33.0 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 35 | 30.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 20 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 32 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Central Michigan | L | 36 | 36.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsEastern Michigan | L | 34 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Miami (OH) | L | 31 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kent State | L | 37 | 32.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Duquesne, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Sean Patrick nor without Sean Patrick: Sean Patrick had no game for the team that season, and sit out.