Akron’s carries with Sean Patrick and without Sean Patrick
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 1.7 carries under with Sean Patrick and 2.1 carries over without Sean Patrick in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.3 and 31.0, a difference of 2.3. Expected was 5.1 carries higher with Sean Patrick than without Sean Patrick. All 3 home games were with Sean Patrick. All 4 nonconference games were with Sean Patrick. All 4 first-half games were with Sean Patrick.
Sean Patrick, running back: 259 rushing yards, 47 carries and 12 receptions in 8 games this season, 20% of Akron’s carries in those games.
One game without Sean Patrick is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Sean Patrick
−1.7
without Sean Patrick
+2.1
-100
plain
33.3
31.0
20253035
The games
with Sean Patrickwithout Sean Patrick
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 35 | 30.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 20 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 32 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | L | 36 | 36.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 34 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 31 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | 37 | 32.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Robert Morris has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.