Akron’s carries with Brayden Roggow and without Brayden Roggow
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Akron was 2.1 carries under with Brayden Roggow and 4.7 carries over without Brayden Roggow in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.7 and 37.0, a difference of 5.3. All 4 conference games were with Brayden Roggow. All 4 second-half games were with Brayden Roggow.
Brayden Roggow, quarterback: 1,343 passing yards, 192 pass attempts and 112 completions in 9 games this season, 14% of Akron’s carries in those games.
2 games without Brayden Roggow is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Brayden Roggow
−2.1
without Brayden Roggow
+4.7
-100
plain
31.7
37.0
20253035
A −5.3 difference in carries with Brayden Roggow vs without Brayden Roggow is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Brayden Roggowwithout Brayden Roggow
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 35 | 30.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 20 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 32 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | L | 36 | 36.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 34 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 31 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | 37 | 32.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Robert Morris has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.