Air Force’s third-down conversion rate with Liam Szarka and since Liam Szarka’s last game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 6.3 percentage points over with Liam Szarka and 8.7 percentage points over since Liam Szarka’s last game in 2026, 2 games against 4. The plain averages are 49.3% and 54.6%, a difference of 5.3%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Liam Szarka. All 4 first-half games were with Liam Szarka. All 4 second-half games were since Liam Szarka’s last game.
Liam Szarka, quarterback: 296 passing yards, 38 pass attempts and 19 completions in 4 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Liam Szarka vs since Liam Szarka’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −5.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Liam Szarka vs since Liam Szarka’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 42.9% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Nevada | W | 44.4% | 36.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 50.0% | 45.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 76.9% | 47.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 44.4% | 45.5% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 53.3% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 43.8% | 48.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.