Air Force’s third-down conversion rate with Kemper Hodges and without Kemper Hodges
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 29.3 percentage points over with Kemper Hodges and 3.6 percentage points over without Kemper Hodges in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 76.9% and 48.4%, a difference of 28.5%. All 5 home games were without Kemper Hodges. All 4 day games were without Kemper Hodges. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Kemper Hodges.
Kemper Hodges, quarterback: 2 pass attempts and 401 rushing yards in 7 games this season.
One game with Kemper Hodges is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Kemper Hodges
+29.3%
without Kemper Hodges
+3.6%
0%10%20%
plain
76.9%
48.4%
50%60%70%
The games
with Kemper Hodgeswithout Kemper Hodges
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 42.9% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Nevada | W | 44.4% | 36.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 50.0% | 45.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 76.9% | 47.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 44.4% | 45.5% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 53.3% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 43.8% | 48.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.