Air Force’s third-down conversion rate with Evan Medders and without Evan Medders
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 1.0 percentage points under with Evan Medders and 9.7 percentage points over without Evan Medders in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 44.4% and 53.0%, a difference of 8.6%. All 3 away games were without Evan Medders. All 4 night games were without Evan Medders. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Evan Medders.
Evan Medders, quarterback: 92 passing yards, 14 pass attempts and 8 completions in 6 games this season.
One game with Evan Medders is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Evan Medders
−1.0%
without Evan Medders
+9.7%
0%10%20%
plain
44.4%
53.0%
50%60%70%
The games
with Evan Medderswithout Evan Medders
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 42.9% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Nevada | W | 44.4% | 36.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 50.0% | 45.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 76.9% | 47.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 44.4% | 45.5% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 53.3% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 43.8% | 48.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.