Air Force’s rushing yards with Kemper Hodges and without Kemper Hodges
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 147.1 yards over with Kemper Hodges and 63.8 yards over without Kemper Hodges in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 440.0 and 326.1, a difference of 113.9. All 5 home games were without Kemper Hodges. All 4 day games were without Kemper Hodges. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Kemper Hodges.
Kemper Hodges, quarterback: 2 pass attempts and 401 rushing yards in 7 games this season, 17% of Air Force’s rushing yards in those games.
One game with Kemper Hodges is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
with Kemper Hodges
+147.1
without Kemper Hodges
+63.8
0100
plain
440.0
326.1
200300400
The games
with Kemper Hodgeswithout Kemper Hodges
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 422 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 207 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Nevada | W | 363 | 238.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 190 | 269.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 440 | 292.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 431 | 274.3 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 304 | 298.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 366 | 255.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.