Air Force’s points with Liam Szarka and without Liam Szarka
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 3.4 points over with Liam Szarka and 3.6 points under without Liam Szarka over its last 25 games, 10 games against 7. The plain averages are 30.3 and 28.5, a difference of 1.8. Expected was 2.7 points lower with Liam Szarka than without Liam Szarka. All 3 games after a bye were with Liam Szarka.
Liam Szarka, quarterback: 1,590 passing yards, 158 pass attempts and 94 completions in 14 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
with Liam Szarka
+3.4
without Liam Szarka
−3.6
-20020
A +7.0 difference in points over expected with Liam Szarka vs without Liam Szarka is about what you’d expect.
plain
30.3
28.5
2040
A +1.8 difference in points with Liam Szarka vs without Liam Szarka is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Liam Szarkawithout Liam Szarka
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Army | L | 3 | 12.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Fresno State | W | 36 | 17.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Oregon State | W | 28 | 23.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Nevada | W | 22 | 20.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ San Diego State | W | 31 | 20.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Bucknell | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 30 | 28.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Boise State | L | 37 | 23.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Hawaii | L | 35 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Navy | L | 31 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ UNLV | L | 48 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 24 | 25.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsArmy | L | 17 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 26 | 34.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ UConn | L | 16 | 33.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs New Mexico | L | 3 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 42 | 28.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 32 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Nevada | W | 36 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsNavy | W | 14 | 30.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 28 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUNLV | W | 41 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Wyoming | L | 14 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsUConn | W | 35 | 29.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bucknell, Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Liam Szarka nor without Liam Szarka: Liam Szarka had no game for the team that season, and sit out.