Air Force’s points with Liam Szarka and since Liam Szarka’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 0.4 points under with Liam Szarka and 1.1 points over since Liam Szarka’s last game in 2026, 2 games against 4. The plain averages are 29.0 and 29.5, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 3.0 points lower with Liam Szarka than since Liam Szarka’s last game. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Liam Szarka. All 4 first-half games were with Liam Szarka. All 4 second-half games were since Liam Szarka’s last game.
Liam Szarka, quarterback: 296 passing yards, 38 pass attempts and 19 completions in 4 games this season.
points a game over expected
A −1.5 difference in points over expected with Liam Szarka vs since Liam Szarka’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −0.5 difference in points with Liam Szarka vs since Liam Szarka’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 32 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Nevada | W | 36 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 14 | 30.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 28 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 41 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 14 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 35 | 29.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.