Air Force’s points with Kemper Hodges and without Kemper Hodges
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 12.5 points under with Kemper Hodges and 2.9 points over without Kemper Hodges over its last 25 games, 2 games against 20. The plain averages are 22.0 and 29.0, a difference of 7.0. Expected was 9.8 points higher with Kemper Hodges than without Kemper Hodges. All 13 home games were without Kemper Hodges. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were without Kemper Hodges. All 4 games after a bye were without Kemper Hodges.
Kemper Hodges, quarterback: 74 passing yards, 16 pass attempts and 6 completions in 15 of those 25 games.
2 games with Kemper Hodges is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −15.4 difference in points over expected with Kemper Hodges vs without Kemper Hodges is about what you’d expect.
A −7.0 difference in points with Kemper Hodges vs without Kemper Hodges is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Army | L | 3 | 12.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Fresno State | W | 36 | 17.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Oregon State | W | 28 | 23.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Nevada | W | 22 | 20.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ San Diego State | W | 31 | 20.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Bucknell | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 30 | 28.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Boise State | L | 37 | 23.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Hawaii | L | 35 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Navy | L | 31 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ UNLV | L | 48 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 24 | 25.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsArmy | L | 17 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 26 | 34.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ UConn | L | 16 | 33.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs New Mexico | L | 3 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 42 | 28.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 32 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Nevada | W | 36 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsNavy | W | 14 | 30.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 28 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUNLV | W | 41 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Wyoming | L | 14 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsUConn | W | 35 | 29.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bucknell, Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.