Air Force’s points with Kemper Hodges and without Kemper Hodges
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 7.9 points under with Kemper Hodges and 2.3 points over without Kemper Hodges in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 28.0 and 29.4, a difference of 1.4. Expected was 10.3 points higher with Kemper Hodges than without Kemper Hodges. All 5 home games were without Kemper Hodges. All 4 day games were without Kemper Hodges. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Kemper Hodges.
Kemper Hodges, quarterback: 2 pass attempts and 401 rushing yards in 7 games this season.
One game with Kemper Hodges is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Kemper Hodges
−7.9
without Kemper Hodges
+2.3
-10010
plain
28.0
29.4
203040
The games
with Kemper Hodgeswithout Kemper Hodges
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 32 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Nevada | W | 36 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 14 | 30.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 28 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 41 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 14 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 35 | 29.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.