Air Force’s points with Evan Medders and without Evan Medders
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 17.4 points over with Evan Medders and 2.8 points under without Evan Medders in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 41.0 and 27.6, a difference of 13.4. All 3 away games were without Evan Medders. All 4 night games were without Evan Medders. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Evan Medders.
Evan Medders, quarterback: 92 passing yards, 14 pass attempts and 8 completions in 6 games this season.
One game with Evan Medders is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Evan Medders
+17.4
without Evan Medders
−2.8
-10010
plain
41.0
27.6
203040
The games
with Evan Medderswithout Evan Medders
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 32 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Nevada | W | 36 | 20.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 14 | 30.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 28 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 41 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 14 | 24.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 35 | 29.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.