Air Force’s penalty yards with Evan Medders and without Evan Medders
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 24.8 yards under with Evan Medders and 11.3 yards under without Evan Medders over its last 25 games, 1 game against 16. The plain averages are 30.0 and 37.6, a difference of 7.6. Expected was 9.6 yards higher with Evan Medders than without Evan Medders. All 9 away games were without Evan Medders. All 5 night games were without Evan Medders. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were without Evan Medders.
Evan Medders, quarterback: 92 passing yards, 14 pass attempts and 8 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
One game with Evan Medders is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
penalty yards a game over expected
with Evan Medders
−24.8
without Evan Medders
−11.3
-40-20020
plain
30.0
37.6
020406080
The games
with Evan Medderswithout Evan Medders
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Army | L | 50 | 31.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Fresno State | W | 26 | 44.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Oregon State | W | 0 | 41.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Nevada | W | 5 | 43.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ San Diego State | W | 25 | 43.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Bucknell | W | 56 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 35 | 44.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Boise State | L | 45 | 45.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Hawaii | L | 32 | 45.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Navy | L | 35 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ UNLV | L | 71 | 42.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 10 | 47.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsArmy | L | 20 | 30.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 55 | 44.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ UConn | L | 16 | 36.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs New Mexico | L | 0 | 48.1 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 0 | 47.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 55 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Nevada | W | 80 | 55.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsNavy | W | 20 | 48.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 24 | 54.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUNLV | W | 30 | 54.8 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Wyoming | L | 65 | 51.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsUConn | W | 35 | 50.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Bucknell, Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Evan Medders nor without Evan Medders: Evan Medders had no game for the team that season, and sit out.