Air Force’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Air Force was 2.1 points over at home and 0.9 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 31.2 and 26.0, a difference of 5.2. All 4 day games were at home. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home. All 3 nonconference games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+2.1
away
−0.9
-10010
A +3.0 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
31.2
26.0
203040
A +5.2 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | L | 32 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Nevada | W | 36 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 14 | 30.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 28 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 41 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 14 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 35 | 29.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.