Tucker Holloway’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Tucker Holloway was 4.1 yards under at home and 16.0 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 10.0 and 24.0, a difference of 14.0.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−4.1
away
+16.0
0102030
A −20.1 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
10.0
24.0
0102030
A −14.0 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 5 | 9.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 0 | 7.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 34 | 8.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 26 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Army | L | 38 | 7.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 9 | 9.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 0 | 7.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, plus 6.9 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 5%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.