Sam Keltner’s field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Sam Keltner was 2.0 field goals over at home and 0.7 field goals over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 3.0 and 1.5, a difference of 1.5.
field goals a game over expected
at home
+2.0
away
+0.7
02
A +1.3 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
3.0
1.5
024
A +1.5 difference in field goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Tulsa | L | 1 | 1.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 4 | 1.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 1 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 4 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 1 | 0.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 5 | 2.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 0 | 0.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 91% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.