Ryan Niblett’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Ryan Niblett was 0.1 yards over at home and 0.1 yards under away in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 0.3 and 0.0, a difference of 0.3. All 3 night games were at home. All 4 unranked opponents were at home. Both top-10 opponents were at home.
One game away is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+0.1
away
−0.1
01
plain
0.3
0.0
00.511.52
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 0 | 0.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 0 | 0.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTSA | W | 0 | 0.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tennessee | W | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | L | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida | L | 0 | 0.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 2 | 0.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 0 | 0.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, plus 6.9 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.