Nico Radicic’s field goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Nico Radicic was 0.4 field goals over at home and 0.8 field goals over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.3 and 2.0, a difference of 0.8. All 3 games while in the top 5 were at home. Both first-half games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
field goals a game over expected
at home
+0.4
away
+0.8
-101
A −0.3 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.3
2.0
00.511.52
A −0.8 difference in field goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 1 | 0.9 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Northwestern | W | 2 | 0.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 2 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Nebraska | W | 2 | 1.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 2 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Minnesota | W | 2 | 0.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 92%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 91% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.