Mason Heintschel’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Mason Heintschel was 31.3 yards over at home and 84.0 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 1. The plain averages are 297.8 and 113.0, a difference of 184.8. All 3 day games were at home. All 3 nonconference games were at home. All 4 first-half games were at home.
One game away is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+31.3
away
−84.0
-1000100200
plain
297.8
113.0
200300400
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 453 | 222.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 212 | 246.9 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 123 | 224.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Bucknell | W | 403 | — | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 113 | 197.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 9.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 83%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 102% of the difference the model predicts.
- Bucknell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.