Malachi Toney’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Malachi Toney was 79.3 yards over at home and 46.2 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 141.0 and 115.8, a difference of 25.3. Both day games were at home. Both nonconference games were at home.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+79.3
away
+46.2
050100150
A +33.1 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
141.0
115.8
50100150200
A +25.3 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Stanford | W | 234 | 69.2 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 96 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 114 | 71.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 120 | 51.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 40 | 73.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 154 | 93.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 194 | 85.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 75 | 64.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, plus 6.9 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 47%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Florida A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.