Makhi Hughes’ rushing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed running backs, Makhi Hughes was 13.5 yards over at home and 30.4 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 61.5 and 67.8, a difference of 6.3. Expected was 16.5 yards higher at home than away.
rushing yards a game over expected
at home
+13.5
away
+30.4
-2002040
A −16.9 difference in rushing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
61.5
67.8
406080
A −6.3 difference in rushing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Oregon State | W | 98 | 51.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 71 | 28.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 70 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 27 | 48.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kansas State | W | 78 | 57.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 77 | 61.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 52 | 28.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed running backs in its other 2026 games, plus 10.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for running backs that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s running backs’ rushing yards in his games, 42%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 101% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.