Putting Up Numbers· college football

Liam Szarka’s passing yards at home and away

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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Liam Szarka was 176.6 yards under at home and 44.5 yards under away in 2026, 1 game against 1. The plain averages are 68.0 and 92.0, a difference of 24.0. Expected was 122.1 yards higher at home than away. Both day games were at home. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home. Both nonconference games were at home.

One game away is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

passing yards a game over expected

The games

at homeaway
Liam Szarka’s games, 2026, each marked at home or away
SideDateGameResultpassing yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsDuquesneW19—
Sep 12, 2026vsNNorth Dakota StateL103—
Sep 26, 2026@NevadaW92136.5
Oct 3, 2026vsNavyW82258.6

Method

  • Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 9.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 86%.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 102% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Duquesne, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.