Jeremiah Smith’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Jeremiah Smith was 52.0 yards over at home and 66.8 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 136.5 and 130.3, a difference of 6.3. Expected was 21.0 yards higher at home than away. All 3 ranked opponents were away. Both top-10 opponents were away.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+52.0
away
+66.8
050100
A −14.7 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
136.5
130.3
100150200
A +6.3 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 151 | 90.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 164 | 58.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 85 | 82.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Illinois | W | 217 | 82.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 206 | 73.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 93 | 82.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Indiana | W | 68 | 56.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | 83 | 65.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, plus 6.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 53%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.