Jaylon Hawkins’ receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Jaylon Hawkins was 31.7 yards under at home and 31.2 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 25.0 and 77.3, a difference of 52.3. All 4 night games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−31.7
away
+31.2
0100
A −62.9 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.0
77.3
050100150
A −52.3 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 0 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 6 | 57.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 25 | 47.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 0 | 78.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 43 | 49.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 84 | 60.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Colorado State | L | 164 | 40.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 35 | 55.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, plus 6.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 32%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.