Fluff Bothwell’s rushing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed running backs, Fluff Bothwell was 6.7 yards under at home and 43.0 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 71.5 and 92.3, a difference of 20.8. Expected was 28.8 yards higher at home than away. Both games while ranked were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
at home
−6.7
away
+43.0
-50050
A −49.7 difference in rushing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
71.5
92.3
50100
A −20.8 difference in rushing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 52 | 122.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 113 | 49.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 115 | 50.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 122 | 61.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 1 | 75.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 111 | 53.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 49 | 48.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed running backs in its other 2026 games, plus 10.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for running backs that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s running backs’ rushing yards in his games, 61%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 101% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.