Easton Messer’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Easton Messer was 78.5 yards over at home and 33.3 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 128.0 and 94.8, a difference of 33.3.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+78.5
away
+33.3
050100
A +45.2 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
128.0
94.8
50100150
A +33.3 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Florida | L | 73 | 74.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 179 | 70.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 83 | 54.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 15 | 62.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 88 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Army | L | 102 | 56.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 162 | 64.2 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 189 | 52.5 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, plus 6.9 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 37%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.