Drew Mestemaker’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Drew Mestemaker was 94.6 yards over at home and 85.9 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 332.8 and 329.5, a difference of 3.3.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+94.6
away
+85.9
050100150
A +8.7 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
332.8
329.5
250300350
A +3.3 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Tulsa | L | 241 | 193.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 317 | 215.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 324 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 389 | 311.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 304 | 277.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 365 | 250.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 386 | 230.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 323 | 220.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 9.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 98%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 102% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.