Connor Calvert’s field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Connor Calvert was 0.5 field goals over at home and 0.8 field goals over away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 1.5 and 1.8, a difference of 0.3.
field goals a game over expected
at home
+0.5
away
+0.8
012
A −0.3 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.5
1.8
0123
A −0.3 difference in field goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 3 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Purdue | W | 3 | 0.9 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 0 | 0.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisville | W | 3 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 0 | 0.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ NC State | W | 1 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ California | W | 0 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Virginia | W | 3 | 1.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 91% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.